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June 282022

This month, Doctors Manitoba released a new comprehensive estimate of the backlog of diagnostic tests and surgeries that have accumulated during the pandemic. The new estimate focuses on the work required to clear the backlog, rather than tabulating the procedures missed during the pandemic as some of those procedures are no longer required. See our full report to explain the new approach here.

Overall Backlog

The impact of the pandemic response on Manitoba’s hospitals has resulted in a backlog of surgery and diagnostic procedures. After more than two years of disruptions during the pandemic, the backlog of accumulated procedures is massive. 

Our estimate of the backlog includes surgeries, diagnostic imaging tests such as MRIs and ultrasound scans, and other diagnostic procedures such as allergy tests and endoscopies. The range of procedures reflects the potential for delayed referrals and consultations not yet counted in the wait list (over 30% of Manitobans say they delayed care during the pandemic).

Estimated Surgery Backlog

The surgery pandemic backlog estimate is current to April 2022.

Estimated Diagnostic Imaging Backlog

The diagnostic imaging pandemic backlog is current to April 2022

Estimated Backlog for Other Diagnostic Procedures

The pandemic backlog for other diagnostic procedures is current to April/​May 2022.

A new procedure was added to the backlog: chronic pain assessments at the pain clinic in Winnipeg. There has been a significant increase in the wait list and wait time during the pandemic. 

These numbers represent Manitobans. Patients across the province have been impacted by the backlog. Read their stories HERE.

Methodology and References

The surgery and diagnostic imaging estimates reported above do not include any backlog of wait list that existed before the COVID-19 pandemic was declared in March 2020. The backlog estimates only capture the pandemic period. 

For all estimates, procedure volumes during the pandemic were compared with the same period for the year prior to the pandemic, and the difference is considered the backlog. In some cases, this was supplemented with other data and insights to develop and update these estimates. Because the pandemic has also delayed referrals for surgery and diagnostics, creating a secondary hidden backlog, our estimates attempt to include this for a more complete picture.

Surgery Wait Times: These estimates are based on a composite of publicly reported data from Manitoba Health and CIHI, public statements from provincial health officials and estimates and insights provided by surgeons and referring physicians. Sources include Manitoba Health Wait Time reporting, CIHI’s comprehensive reporting on surgery volume changes, public reports and updates from Shared Health officials, and estimates obtained in surveys from surgeons and referring physicians. See our earlier reports for full methodology.

Diagnostic Imaging Reports: These estimates rely primarily on publicly reported data from Manitoba Health’s Wait Time website.

Other Diagnostic Procedures: These estimates rely primarily on an analysis of physician claims data, supplemented by insights and estimates obtained from physicians. For specialized lung function tests, this also includes related respiratory tests such as pulmonary provocations, gas exchanges and six minute walk tests. Only the backlog for the last six months is included for lung function and respiratory tests. 

Resources and Past Reports
Archived Report — May 312022

Overall Backlog

The impact of the pandemic response on Manitoba’s hospitals has resulted in a massive backlog of surgery and diagnostic procedures. Doctors Manitoba has been advocating on behalf of patients and their physicians for a plan to clear the backlog. As part of our work, we have created a dashboard to monitor the size of the backlog.

Our estimate of the backlog includes surgeries, diagnostic imaging tests such as MRIs and ultrasound scans, and other diagnostic procedures such as allergy tests and endoscopies. The pandemic backlog was estimated at 166,903 surgeries and diagnostic procedures as of March/​April 2022, down 2,295 from the estimated peak of 169,168 in last month’s estimate. 

The chart below illustrates the increases and decreases in the backlog month-by-month during the pandemic. The estimated backlog for March 2022 shrank by 2,295 cases, the first decrease since March 2021.

Estimated Surgery Backlog

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to March 2022.

The estimated surgical backlog in March was basically unchanged for most surgical procedures, suggesting surgical volumes were getting back to pre-pandemic capacity.

Estimated Diagnostic Imaging Backlog

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to March 2022.

The estimated surgical backlog in March was basically unchanged for most surgical procedures, suggesting surgical volumes were getting back to pre-pandemic capacity.

Estimated Backlog for Other Diagnostic Procedures

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to March 2022.

The estimated surgical backlog in March was basically unchanged for most surgical procedures, suggesting surgical volumes were getting back to pre-pandemic capacity.

These numbers represent Manitobans. Patients across the province have been impacted by the backlog. Read their stories HERE.

Archived Report — April 292022

Overall Backlog

The impact of the pandemic response on Manitoba’s hospitals has resulted in a massive backlog of surgery and diagnostic procedures. Doctors Manitoba has been advocating on behalf of patients and their physicians for a plan to clear the backlog. As part of our work, we have created a dashboard to monitor the size of the backlog.

Our estimate of the backlog includes surgeries, diagnostic imaging tests such as MRIs and ultrasound scans, and other diagnostic procedures such as allergy tests and endoscopies. The pandemic backlog has reached 169,198 surgeries and diagnostic procedures, an increase of 1,311 from our March estimate.

Estimated Surgery Backlog

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to February 2022.

The estimated surgical backlog in February was unchanged for cardiac surgery, decreased slightly for cataract surgery, and increased for hip/​knee replacements and other surgical procedures.

Estimated Diagnostic Imaging Backlog

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to February 2022.

The estimated pandemic backlog for February increased for ultrasounds, MRI scans, myocardial perfusion tests and bone density studies. The backlog for CT scans continues to be eliminated, though wait lists still exist as they did before the pandemic. 

Estimated Backlog for Other Diagnostic Procedures

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to March 2022

The estimated backlog for March decreased for mammograms and allergy tests, but increased for endoscopies, sleep disorder studies and lung function tests.

These numbers represent Manitobans. Patients across the province have been impacted by the backlog. Read their stories HERE.

Archived Report — March 222022

March 222022

Overall Backlog

The impact of the pandemic response on Manitoba’s hospitals has resulted in a massive backlog of surgery and diagnostic procedures. Doctors Manitoba has been advocating on behalf of patients and their physicians for a plan to clear the backlog. As part of our work, we have created a dashboard to monitor the size of the backlog.

Our estimate of the backlog includes surgeries, diagnostic imaging tests such as MRIs and ultrasound scans, and other diagnostic procedures such as allergy tests and endoscopies. The pandemic backlog has reached 167,887 surgeries and diagnostic procedures, an increase of 6,302 from our February estimate.

Estimated Surgery Backlog

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to January 2022.

The surgical backlog increased in January for all monitored procedures.

Estimated Diagnostic Imaging Backlog

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to January 2022.

The pandemic backlog for CT scans continues to be eliminated, though wait lists still exist as they did before the pandemic. The backlog increased in January for all monitored procedures.

Estimated Backlog for Other Diagnostic Procedures

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to February 2022

The backlog for allergy tests, endoscopies and lung function tests increased in January, which there were modest decreases in the backlog for diagnostic mammograms and sleep disorder studies.

Archived Report — February 172022

Overall Backlog

The impact of the pandemic response on Manitoba’s hospitals has resulted in a massive backlog of surgery and diagnostic procedures. Doctors Manitoba has been advocating on behalf of patients and their physicians for a plan to clear the backlog. As part of our work, we have created a dashboard to monitor the size of the backlog.

Our estimate of the backlog includes surgeries, diagnostic imaging tests such as MRIs and ultrasound scans, and other diagnostic procedures such as allergy tests and endoscopies. The pandemic backlog has reached 161,585 surgeries and diagnostic procedures, an increase of 7,748 from our January estimate.

Estimated Surgery Backlog

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to December 2021

The surgical backlog increased in December for all monitored procedures.

Estimated Diagnostic Imaging Backlog

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to December 2021.

The backlog improved in December for Ultrasound and MRI, but grew for myocardial perfusion tests and bone density studies. The pandemic backlog for CT scans continues to be eliminated, though wait lists still exist as they did before the pandemic.

Estimated Backlog for Other Diagnostic Procedures

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to January 2021 

The backlog for all other diagnostic procedures monitored increased in January. This month, a new group of diagnostic tests have been added: specialized lung function and respiratory tests. See methodological notes for 

Note about data correction: Please note that the backlog estimates for hip and knee surgeries have been restated to reflect a correction in the data. The baseline data used for 2019/20 was obtained from public wait time reporting from Manitoba Health, which was later corrected. This was brought to our attention, and the backlog estimates have been updated both for the current month and past months. The estimated backlog for hip and knee surgery is 2,021, not 9,616 as previously reported. This results in the estimated backlog for all surgery changing to 52,327, from 57,827 as previously reported.

Archived Report — January 132022

Overall Backlog

The impact of the pandemic response on Manitoba’s hospitals has resulted in a massive backlog of surgery and diagnostic procedures. Doctors Manitoba has been advocating on behalf of patients and their physicians for a plan to clear the backlog. As part of our work, we have created a dashboard to monitor the size of the backlog.

Our estimate of the backlog includes surgeries, diagnostic imaging tests such as MRIs and ultrasound scans, and other diagnostic procedures such as allergy tests and endoscopies. The pandemic backlog has reached 153,320 surgeries and diagnostic procedures, an increase of 1,204 from our December estimate.

Estimated Surgery Backlog

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to November 2021

The surgical backlog increased in November for all procedures monitored other than cataracts. As of November 20, 2021, Shared Health reports that surgery slates are once again being disrupted as nurses are redeployed to support the pandemic response. This is estimated to add another 100 to 150 more cases to the backlog each week.

Estimated Diagnostic Imaging Backlog

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to November 2021.

The backlog improved in November for Ultrasound and MRIs, but grew for myocardial perfusion tests and bone density studies. The pandemic backlog for CT scans continues to be eliminated, though wait lists continue.


Estimated Backlog for Other Diagnostic Procedures

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to November 2021 

The backlog for diagnostic mammograms and sleep disorder studies improved in November, but grew for endoscopies and allergy tests.

Cumulative Pandemic Backlog by Month 

Archived Report — December 2021

Overall Backlog

The impact of the pandemic response on Manitoba’s hospitals has resulted in a massive backlog of surgery and diagnostic procedures. Doctors Manitoba has been advocating on behalf of patients and their physicians for a plan to clear the backlog. As part of our work, we have created a dashboard to monitor the size of the backlog.

Our estimate of the backlog includes surgeries, diagnostic imaging tests such as MRIs and ultrasound scans, and other diagnostic procedures such as allergy tests and endoscopies. The pandemic backlog has reached 152,116 surgeries and diagnostic procedures, an increase of 6,675 from our November estimate. Please note that we have revised our previous estimate to be more accurate (see notes under other diagnostic procedures for more details).

Estimated Surgery Backlog

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to October 2021

The surgical backlog increased in October in all areas. As of November 20, 2021, Shared Health reports that surgery slates are once again being disrupted as nurses are redeployed to support the pandemic response. This is estimated to add another 100 to 150 more cases to the backlog each week.

Estimated Diagnostic Imaging Backlog

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to October 2021.

NEW: Bone density tests have been added to our backlog tracking this month, accounting for most of the increase. 

The backlog increased for ultrasound scans this month, but improved for MRIs and myocardial perfusion.


Estimated Backlog for Other Diagnostic Procedures

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to November 2021 

The backlog for diagnostic mammograms, endoscopies, allergy tests and sleep disorder studies all increased in November. 

Data for October has been restated to reflect a correction in the data. October’s backlog had previously been estimated at 42,596. After reviewing the data, it was discovered the October backlog for these procedures should have been 51,935. The totals for each procedure have been updated above. This means the backlog of other diagnostic procedures increased in November by 1,069.

Archived Report — November 2021

Overall Backlog

The impact of the pandemic response on Manitoba’s hospitals has resulted in a massive backlog of surgery and diagnostic procedures. Doctors Manitoba has been advocating on behalf of patients and their physicians for a plan to clear the backlog. As part of our work, we have created a dashboard to monitor the size of the backlog.

Our estimate of the backlog includes surgeries, diagnostic imaging tests such as MRIs and ultrasound scans, and other diagnostic procedures such as allergy tests and endoscopies.

Estimated Surgery Backlog

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to September 2021

The backlog of cataract tests improved in September due to higher-than-normal volumes. However, the backlog for cardiac surgery, hip/​knee replacements and other surgical procedures all increased. 

As of November 20, 2021, surgery slates are once again being disrupted as nurses are redeployed to support the pandemic response. This is estimated to add 100 to 150 more cases to the backlog each week.

Estimated Diagnostic Imaging Backlog

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to September 2021.

The backlog for all diagnostic imaging procedures improved in September, thanks to higher-than-normal volumes.

Estimated Backlog for Other Diagnostic Procedures

Pandemic backlog estimate reflects March 2020 to October 2021

NEW: Sleep disorder studies is a new procedure added to the backlog estimate this month, accounting for most of the increase. 

The backlog for diagnostic mammograms increased in September over August, while the backlog for allergy tests and diagnostic endoscopies decreased. However, with Shared Health’s report that endoscopy slates will be cancelled again, the backlog is projected to increase by 70 to 85 cases per week.

Last updated
June 28, 2022